PhD Position: Bayesian Inversion of Seismic Intensities for Historical Earthquake Analysis per a l'Institut de Ciències del Mar

Studying large historical earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment. Unlike instrumental events recorded by seismometers, historical earthquakes occurred before the advent of such instruments. Their magnitude and location must be inferred from macroseismic intensity data, such as historical documents and damage reports.

To estimate these parameters, seismologists use Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs), which model ground shaking intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude, distance, attenuation, and local site conditions. However, IPEs must be regionally calibrated using instrumental data, and poorly calibrated models lead to biased estimates of historical earthquakes.

This project aims to develop a Bayesian probabilistic approach to jointly estimate earthquake magnitudes, locations, and IPE parameters, integrating both historical and instrumental data. Unlike traditional methods, this approach will account for uncertainties more comprehensively, leading to improved historical earthquake characterization. Ultimately, this research will contribute to the development of a new seismicity catalog, which will be used to update and improve seismic hazard models for metropolitan France.

Candidate Profile

The ideal candidate should have a strong background in geosciences or computer science and be proficient in programming. Applications from women are especially welcome. The candidate is expected to start on autumn 2025, but the starting date can be adjusted. 

Deadline: 30 June 2025

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